FINANCIAL | STOCK MARKET
Seasonality analysis is useful when combined with other forms of analysis. Never ever buy an equity based solely on seasonality. Similarly, never ever buy an equity based solely on technical analysis and never ever buy an equity based solely on fundamental analysis. The secret is to combine the three forms of analysis. Chances of success are greatly enhanced.
Seasonal influences on equity markets work most of the time, but not all of the time. For U.S. equity markets, positive returns from the end of October to the end of April have been recorded in 53 of the past 61 periods. Years when seasonality did not work tended to have special reasons (e.g. a change in tax rates, a currency crisis).
(1) Historically, in the year after a US president is elected, markets go up through until the 1st week in February. Then the market tends to take a bit of a shallow dive until the end of March. After that, markets then move higher and by May they are at new highs and the market historically peaks right at the end of the year.
(2) Presidents tend to do the most difficult things after they are elected. The first quarter of a post-election year is normally a down quarter. The good news is what happens through April/May (over 20 elections cycles / TSX) and another movement into the summer time.
(3) Historically, a year before the US presidential election is the strongest year of the 4 years, and typically the market does particularly well as you get into the latter part of the year.
(4) The period from October is usually one of the strongest of the US presidential cycle.
MARKETS – JULY 21 – 2015
(1) In 12 of the last 13 years, something completely unexpected happened between May and October. Last year was Ebola and the Ukraine. This year is China and Greece. Right around the beginning of May you want to protect yourself, because an “event” virtually happens every year. The markets go through a period of volatility, and bring markets down. This volatility eventually does provide an excellent buying opportunity for what they call the Summer rally. It happens virtually every year. Any kind of weakness over the next few weeks is a buying opportunity for a move on the upside in the equity markets.
· Canadian bank stocks have 2 periods of seasonal strength, October until December and February to April
· It usually kicks in at about the end of January and runs through until the end of April. Normally this provides a 6% return plus a dividend yield of 5.2%
· Seasonal strength from July to end of September and mid December until the beginning of March.
· July 21 – 2015
(1) Historically gold bullion bottoms in the 1st week of July, but gold stocks bottom around the 4th week in July.
(2) Watch for gold stocks to reach extremely oversold levels, which will provide an opportunity to enter, probably by the beginning of August.
(3) Be very careful; gold prices are way down; 2nd quarter results from gold companies are going to be horrendous; don’t go into the gold sector prior to that time
(4) Gold is extremely oversold right now on a momentum basis. It is so oversold that there is a pretty good chance you could get a rally very shortly. Watch the US$, which is starting to show early momentum signs of rolling over. When it does that, it will give you an opportunity to purchase gold and silver.
· Has 2 periods of seasonal strength. One starts in Jyly and goes through until October. This is followed by another in late December through February.
· July 2015
(1) We have just started into a period of seasonal strength.
(2) Historically the best thing to be in is gold because it tends to outperform silver at this time.
(3) Recently both have shown some very good technical signs of bottoming.
(4) Silver bottomed last week on an intermediate basis and is now up 6%.
(5) The 1-year chart shows a long term support from December through until now.
(6) Last week there were early signs of momentum indicators all starting to turn positive.
(7) Silver and gold go up because of the wedding season coming up in India in October/November and there is lots of buying to make jewellery. Also, there are periods of volatility coming in the summer. When people see volatility in equity markets, they run to gold and silver.
· On a seasonal basis, crude oil has a history of bottoming around the middle of December. But it doesn’t do much for another couple of months, until we get into February-March-April, when crude oil prices as well as gasoline prices start to move significantly higher.
· Beginning of September until the third week in December is the period of seasonal strength.
· July 2015
(1) They are already starting to move higher, even though the price of crude oil has been going lower
(2) When looking at energy stocks don’t look at just energy stocks, look at gassy stocks.
(3) If the energy sector is going to show signs of recovery, it is going to be because of higher natural gas prices.
· Jan to March and July until beginning of October seasonal strength
· Very strong seasonality, usually from November until May
· Seasonality tends to be from October to November and February until May of each year.
· Seasonal period is December 19 until March 7 each year (26 of 33 years). Tax loss selling is out of the way, institutional investors hold the highest quality securities at the end of year and then at the beginning of the year they tend to take on more risk.